New Report: Anticipating Exploitation: A Futures Analysis

Ten years ago, the Modern Slavery Act 2015 was hailed as world-leading - a moment of political unity in the face of a profound injustice. It signalled the United Kingdom’s determination to confront exploitation in all its forms. It has made a difference: over the past decade, frontline organisations have supported thousands of victims to escape abuse and begin rebuilding their lives. 

But the uncomfortable truth is this: modern slavery has not receded, it has grown.  A decade on, the scale of the problem is greater than ever. Referrals into the National Referral Mechanism reached 23,411 in 2025 - the highest number on record, and a 22% increase in a single year. This is not simply better detection. It reflects a crime that is expanding, adapting, and embedding itself more deeply into the fabric of everyday life. 

Modern slavery is happening in homes, businesses, and communities across the country. It appears in shocking cases that briefly make headlines but then fade quickly from collective consciousness. But the harm continues. Children are exploited in county lines drug networks, workers are trapped in brutal conditions across supply chains, and vulnerable people coerced into lives of fear, debt, and control. 

Despite it happening on our shores too many people still see modern slavery as something that happens elsewhere to someone else. That misconception allows exploitation to continue in plain sight. Without widespread public awareness, even the strongest laws will struggle to deliver real-world impact. 

The forces driving this crime remain, and in some ways intensifying. Poverty, global instability, conflict, displacement of people, and the breakdown of safe migration routes are creating a growing pipeline of vulnerability that traffickers are quick to exploit. Where governance collapses and the rule of law weaken it means exploitation can flourishes and without sustained investment in stabilisation and protection these conditions endure. 

Our response has also struggled to keep pace with the rapid evolution of technology. Artificial intelligence and digital platforms are transforming how traffickers identify, recruit, and control victims at scale. The rise of AI-enabled scams, deepfakes, synthetic identities, and new forms of digital labour exploitation are lowering barriers to entry for criminals, expanding the pool of victims, and making exploitation harder to detect. These tools have become a force multiplier for criminal networks, while the systems designed to stop them lag. 

This is clear in online-enabled sexual exploitation. Recruitment, grooming, and control has shifted onto digital platforms, offenders are operating with greater anonymity, scale, and reach. Social media, encrypted services, and commercial platforms are being used to traffic and exploit victims, alongside emerging patterns such as online grooming, the use of short-term accommodation as popup brothels, and coercion facilitated by drugs.  Sexual exploitation of UK girls has risen 54% in the last five years. As exploitation moves into less visible digital spaces, detection and enforcement is more difficult. 

At home, economic pressures are reshaping the risk. Modern slavery is no longer predominantly a crime affecting people trafficked from overseas. UK nationals are now the highest proportion of victims of modern slavery. Rising living costs, debt, and insecure work are creating conditions in which exploitation can take hold within daily life across sectors that millions rely on every day. 

These trends point to a stark conclusion: the current response is no longer sufficient. What is required now is not incremental change, but a step change, a whole-system response that matches the scale of the threat: coordinated across government and rooted in prevention as much as prosecution of perpetrators.

 
The UK still can lead if it acts now. Ten years on, the question is no longer whether we recognise modern slavery as a serious crime. It is whether we are prepared to act with the urgency and ambition that the scale of the problem now demands. 

You can read the full report here.